2017/02/15 講演録 「トランプ政権下の日米関係」
The State of Japanese-US Relations in the Trump Era
San Diego World Trade Center Public Talk
February 15, 2017
Professor, Meiji Institute of Global Affairs, Meiji University
Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen
It is an honor to be here, today. This is a very interesting time to be in America.
It is especially interesting to be in San Diego because it is near the Mexican border.
This is an interesting region to visit in another sense; in my mind, America’s vitality and strength lies in the ability to innovate, and to translate it to business. California is one of the innovation centers in America, and that means in the world.
I arrived 5 days ago from Japan, having been invited by the University of California, San Diego to participate in the generous program called Japan-US Leadership Program sponsored by the companies in the region. I look forward to the exchanges of views with whom I come in contact, to the visits to the technology hubs and to feeling the vivacious heartbeat of changing America.
1. President Trump and his policies
On January 20 at noon, President Trump, the 45th President of the United States was sworn in. It was televised live on the NHK channel, our PBS. To my surprise, it had a 5.2% audience rating. This was about 4% point higher than the average of that past midnight. This shows the extent of the Japanese people’s attention to the new President.
Why were we interested? The reasons were various. Some people were just curious to find out what the inauguration ceremony would be like and whether there may be anti-Trump demonstrations; some people were worried that he might pursue protectionist policies and wanted to know what he had to say; and some people needed information for their market transactions on Monday. But, fundamentally, to the Japanese, the US is the single most country whom we trust and share basic values such as democracy, freedom, and the rule of law. We are interested to see where President is taking America and our important alliance.
January 20th, happened to be the opening day of our Diet Ordinary Session and Shinzo Abe, our Prime Minister, gave his policy statement. But, unfortunately, his speech did not get the attention of the Japanese public as much as President Trump did. But, if someone asked a question to the Japanese watchers as to which speech was better in content, the answer might have been Prime Minister Abe. To be fair, there was no poll taken on that question and I don’t know the answer for sure.
What were the reactions of the Japanese public to the inauguration speech? I have three observations from the editorials and commentaries in the news show.
First, it was inward looking, catered to his supporters, and no initiatives were shown to unite the nation. Second, he is the most powerful leader of the international community. But for that, the speech did not convey grand wisdom or aspiration with which he would lead. Instead, his transactional posture came across clearly. Third, he repeated what he had been talking about during the election campaign, and impressed us that he did mean his campaign policy promises.
Japanese news media ran public opinion surveys about a week later. Overall, a majority of the Japanese was concerned that the world might become more unstable because of “America First” policy. More than half responded that Japan-US bilateral relationship would worsen while only about 5% thought it would improve. In the past, the highest figure in the deterioration camp marked 45%. It never went beyond 50%. Also, the numbers showed that people were concerned with the effect of his policies on the Japanese economy.
The new administration is only less than a month old. It is still too early to say anything conclusive about President’s policies and their domestic and international implications. The chances are that America would become very strong, while the reverse could also happen. The US has a famous checks and balances system , which is the core of American democracy. We have to take a long view.
2. Importance of Japan-US Relationship
Prime Minister Abe began his policy speech in the Diet last month by saying, ” At the end of last year, I visited Pearl Harbor together with President Obama, and there we offered our deepest condolences to all the souls that were lost in World War II.” Also, touching on our bilateral relationship, he said, “Japan and the United States, two nations that once fiercely fought each other as enemies, have, through the power of reconciliation, become allies tied together with strong bonds.” He went on further to say, “Japan and the United States have a duty to demonstrate the importance of tolerance and the power of reconciliation, and to work together tirelessly in the interests of global peace and prosperity.” And, “The Japan-U.S. Alliance has, is, and will continue to be, the cornerstone of Japan’s diplomacy and security policies. This is an unchanging principle.” With these, he expressed that he would like to strengthen our bilateral alliance relationship with America led by President Trump.
I completely agree with Prime Minister Abe. Our two countries together have developed a constructive bilateral relationship based on democracy, freedom, rule of law, basic human rights, and above all, mutual friendship and respect. Together, we worked to help Asia develop economically under democracy and other values we share. We cannot emphasize enough the role of our alliance for the peace and stability for the Asia Pacific Region.
The Japanese people will never forget your prompt and substantial assistance you provided when the huge earthquake struck Japan in 2011. We have many other areas to work together in the future as well in our respective country: high speed railway construction, energy supply, and technology and innovation intensive industries. Together, we could go beyond our borders to help other countries in Asia from the contagious diseases, pirates, and natural disasters.
3. Deepened US and Asia Economic Relationship
Asia and the countries in the Americas are bound in economic activities and security arrangements. The United States are an indispensable partner of Asia. Japan would be very happy to help the U.S. in Asia.
As you live in San Diego or in its suburbs, one of the geographically closest cities in the US to Asia, you know how close our economic relationship is. US trade across the Pacific surpassed cross-Atlantic trade 40 years ago in second half of the 1970’s.
More recently, trade flow between NAFTA countries and East Asia (10 countries of ASEAN, or Southeast Asia and Japan, China, and Korea combined) has doubled in 12 years leading up to 2012, while that of NAFTA and the EU grew only by 65%.
Why the cross Pacific trade flow increased at a rate three times higher than that of cross Atlantic is an interesting question. The reason was the free and open international economic order which lowered tariff and non-tariff barriers. With that trade grew and in turn, it stimulated the economies in Asia. When the economies reached certain stages of growth, services and capital movements were liberalized and stimulated the economies even more. The benefits of free and open international economic regime accrued to all the countries in the region, China, Japan, Korea and the US.
Free and large scale movements of goods, services, and capital would not take place if there is no peace and stability internationally. The US provided that mainly. Now that the Asia-Pacific Region is the growth center on earth, you could well say that the region is the great asset for the US and the source of power for the US.
I hear that President Trump is interested in seeing more employment growth in the American automobile industry. I understand that a forum is to be made to discuss cooperation between our automobile industries. It reminded me of the 60’s, 70’s 80’s and even early 90’s, when we had trade frictions regarding many products. Automobile was one of them. However, the difference between then and now is great. Our economic environment has changed in that time period so that we would be able to solve the issue in a future-oriented manner.
First, Japan is now producing in the US, producing 3.9 million cars, which is more than 10 times of 1980’s. About 1.5million people, both in production and marketing are employed. Of course, production in the US replaced exports and employment in Japan which went in to exports.
Second, Japan’s share in America’s trade has become smaller. Japan is 4th both in exports and imports of the U,,S and Japan’s bilateral trade deficits with the US is smaller than that of Germany.
Third, US has succeeded in ICT and its productivity is very high. That is the US is very competitive in ICT industry whose horizon is wide open due to continuous innovation. You have a strong competitive edge in technology oriented sector which international community is envious of. I understand the importance of not having any rust belt. But, your strength is making your strong sector even stronger to lead globally.
The slogan of President Trump is “Make America strong again.” Of course, that is the strong wish of the American people. A natural question would be “What do we mean by strong America?
Former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Mr. Mahathir Mohamad recently responded to an interview and said that the US with its wealth and power, has a role to play for the well-being of the world. The US fostered its strength by taking up that difficult task. The greatness of the US lies in facing the world squarely.
In addition to wealth and power, as I said at outset, I would like to add ability to innovate. US strength also lies in creating knowledge, entrepreneurs, and new industries. US has a strong competitive edge. Americans live in the rust belt, or the South East may not feel it. But in the eyes of foreigners, especially Asians, America is always shining brightly.
Only less than a month into the oval room, it is too premature to anything conclusive about President Trump’s policies and their implications on our bilateral relationship. The international community wishes as to the direction that they may take us. I know you do, too. Whatever will happen, you have Japan across the Pacific Ocean who strongly feels that our future stays in walking closely with the US and cooperating constructively with the US. I hope you feel the same.
U.S. Leadership in Northeast Asia: A View from Japan
The United States of America is a critical part of the Asia-Pacific region. It has been a trusted and respected ally, and a strong partner and friend to Asian countries for many years. Asians appreciated the U.S. rebalance, which reflects the U.S. recognition of its interests in Asia, and of the challenges we must all tackle together.
Over the past several decades, the United States has contributed greatly to regional peace and prosperity. On the security front, the United States has provided stability through its hub-and-spoke security arrangements. The U.S.-Japan alliance, in particular, has become the cornerstone of Asia’s security and serves as a critical pillar for regional peace and stability. The strength of this alliance reflects a deep bond based on shared beliefs about democracy, rule of law, freedom of speech, and human rights. We hope the incoming administration will continue to strengthen our alliance going forward.
The United States has also played a vital role in building prosperity. The post-war liberal international economic order, which the United States helped establish, has facilitated increased trade, investment, and technology flows and created strong interdependence between countries in the region. All of us - the United States, Japan, and others - have benefited greatly from this order. None of this prosperity would have been possible without the peace and stability the U.S. presence has provided.
This is why regional countries are now so concerned about potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy under a new administration. The Trump team could help to reduce uncertainty for its regional partners by imparting a message of “continuity.” Asian partners are waiting to hear that the mutually beneficial relationships we have enjoyed with the United States for many years – relationships that are based on interdependence and respect – will continue, and hopefully, be strengthened further.
The direction the Trump administration takes in Asia is significant because the Asia-Pacific region faces a growing array of challenges, many of which require U.S. leadership. One such challenge is China’s assertive actions in the South and East China Seas, which are inconsistent with the rule of law and suggest to some observers that it may not be committed to upholding the current international order. While China’s rise is an important opportunity for the world, especially in the economic domain, countries like Japan are concerned about Chinese efforts to unilaterally change the status quo through coercion or the use of force. Likewise, there are concerns that China only selectively accepts the present international governance framework, as seen in its reaction to the recent ruling by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea on the Philippines’ South China Sea case. The United States and the international community should oppose such actions. In Japan and elsewhere, we are looking for strong U.S. leadership in upholding the principles and standards of the international order, upon which we all depend.
One such area where U.S. actions will be particularly important to Japan is the issue of the Senkaku Islands. On this issue, I urge the new Trump Administration to make clear that U.S. commitments under Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security extend to all the territories under the administration of Japan, including the Senkaku Islands. I would also urge President-elect Trump to reaffirm that the United States opposes any unilateral action that seeks to undermine Japan’s administration of the Senkaku Islands.
North Korea is another issue where we are looking for U.S. leadership. With its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests; infringement on human rights, including abduction of Japanese and other citizens; and dictatorial decision making, North Korea is becoming an increasingly dangerous threat for all the countries in the region. We would like to see the United States and China work together on this issue. My hope is that President-elect Trump will move quickly and determinedly to stop the advance of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and to restart the Six-Party Talks.
Of course, the United States’ strength also comes from its soft power, in addition to its strong economic and military power, and we will look for continued U.S. leadership here as well. The United States has an unparalleled capacity to maintain international public goods and to protect the shared principles that are the foundation of the international order.
On the economic front, this means maintaining and deepening the liberal economic order, which is of paramount importance for the continued prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region. Asia’s growing economic interdependence is not just important for Asians – it has greatly benefited the United States. U.S. businesses have benefited from regional investment and trade, as well as the tremendous market opportunities provided by Asian consumers. Should President-elect Trump follow through with his plans to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will likely set new standards for trade in Asia. Notably, this agreement will be concluded without U.S. participation. For prosperity to continue, the Asia-Pacific region needs to continue to pursue high standards for trade and economic cooperation, and we need U.S. partnership to achieve this goal.
Similarly, on the climate front, I hope that President-elect Trump will reconsider his stance on the Paris Climate Agreement. The Paris Agreement is invaluable; it provides for a sustainable earth, our most treasured international public good, and creates a new model for positive U.S.-China cooperation. Both countries, as the world’s two largest emitters, need to adhere to the agreement’s provisions in order to protect the progress that’s been made.
U.S. leadership, partnership, and friendship has been an essential element of life in the Asia-Pacific region for decades. We hope that President-elect Trump and his administration will maintain this tradition and strengthen these relationships in the years ahead.
(Yoriko Kawaguchi is a professor at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs at Meiji University, and formerly Japan’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister of the Environment)